中国出境游的变与不变
戴斌
中国旅游研究院院长
Dai Bin
President of China Tourism Academy
我们对中国出境旅游市场的发展前景，对世界各国各地区向中国旅游者和投资者不断释放的善意，更对旅游之于人类文明深化的促进充满信心。
近年来，快速增长的中国出境旅游已经成为国内外的热议话题。梳理中国出境游的发展历程，展望中国出境游的发展前景，笔者认为，在今后一个时期，中国出境游将呈现以下几个特征：
一是稳健的中低速增长或将是出境游市场基调。经过10多年的高速增长后，中国出境游增速2015年首次低于两位数，2016年则降到5%以下。这个转折是客观存在的。在国民经济新常态和扩大内需的大背景下，我们高度关注上千亿美元的出境旅游消费，也努力引导消费回流。通过旅游环境的改善和服务品质的提升，促进各地与海外目的地公平地竞争游客。中国市场对世界各国各地区都是开放的，而不是封闭的，也意味着海内外旅游目的地之间的竞争将更加激烈。可以预计，由于竞争的加剧，针对中国游客的宣传、推广、促销和线下活动会更多，也会有更专业的看点。
二是中国出境游客的海外消费行为从“买买买”到“慢慢慢”。已经拥有多次出境经历的中产阶级正在形成一个相对稳定的利基市场，他们有着相对稳定的目的地偏好和消费模式，更加强调对目的地生活方式的体验。越来越多的中国游客喜爱个人游而非跟团游，选择城市、度假地而非国家，与当地居民共享生活空间而非局限于封闭的旅游接待体系，碎片化、随意性的供应商选择而非整体打包的旅行服务。正是由于这个基础市场的存在，中国游客的海外消费行为正在从早期的“买买买”转向“慢慢慢”。无论住宿、餐饮、购物，还是文化娱乐，都更加强调对目的地生活方式的体验。比如在购物这个细分领域，也正在从早期炫耀性的消费走向日常化的理性消费。
三是海外目的地在中国竞争客源，中国的投资者和旅游运营商则在世界竞争资源。无论是锦江、首旅、海航、携程、开元等产业资本，还是中国民生投资、安邦保险等金融资本以及更多携风险投资和人工智能技术的更多的创业者，已经或者正在谋求海外的战略布局。从投资标地上看，过去主要是酒店、度假地、葡萄酒庄等房地产资源，现在则以共享经济名义，寻找广义住宿、自驾游、餐饮等碎片化资源 ，通过高科技把它们连起来。加上银联、微信、支付宝等金融支付的创新以及来自中国的商业保险机构推动的海外救援体系的完善，假以时日，其中的成功者终将成为改变世界旅游格局的有生力量。
鉴于全球第一的出境游市场地位和消费潜力，中国旅游在国家外交中将会扮演更加积极 的角色。今年，瑞士、丹麦、澳大利亚、哈萨克斯坦和东盟十国分别与中国互办旅游年。加上世界旅游组织的年会和“一带一路”峰会的涉旅议题，旅游改变世界正在由预言变成现实。无论是签证的便利化，还是中文接待环境的完善性，都意味着越来越多的国家和地区在“欢迎中国”战略目标上所作出的努力。
无论如何，我们对中国出境旅游市场的发展前景充满信心，对世界各国各地区向中国旅游者和投资者不断释放的善意充满信心，更对旅游之于人类文明深化的促进充满信心。
THE INNOVATION AND HERITAGE OF CHINESE OUTBOUND TOURISM
The prospect of Chinese outbound tourism is quite promising, and global destinations surely will roll out the welcome mat to Chinese tourists and investors and tourism will enhance the progress of human civilization undoubtedly.The rapid growth of Chinese outbound tourism has gained popularity home and abroad. Based on its development and future prospect, it has several features as follows:
To begin with, steady growth in a medium or low level might set a tone in outbound tourism market. The growth rate of national outbound tourism dropped below double digits for the first time in 2015 and sank below five percent last year after 10-year boom. Leading tourism consumption flow back to China is a must. The continuous improvement of environment and service of tourism industry has led domestic tourism to compete with overseas rivals fairly. The cutthroat competition is bound to bring more appealing advertisement, promotion and off-line activities to attract Chinese tourists.
Secondly, Chinese outbound tourists no longer dote on blind shopping. Middle-class tourists focus more on real experience of local lifestyle in destinations, no matter in choosing hotels, catering, shopping or entertainment. A majority of them prefer DIY tour, sharing life space with locals instead of old-fashioned tourist reception. Taking shopping as an example, early show-off consumption has turned into rational daily consumption.
Additionally, overseas markets aim to Chinese customers, while Chinese investors and travel agents are eying the rest of the markets. More and more financial capitals and start-up of AI are plotting to go global. Fragmented resources such as accommodation, self-drive tour and catering will be connected by high tech. With the improvement of overseas financial system such as new payments including UnionPay, Wetchat pay and Alipay, the survivors are going to be a strong force to change the industry.
In view of the facts that China boasts the largest outbound tourism market and consumption potential, it plays a more active role in diplomacy. China’s launched tourism year programs with several countries such as Switzerland, Denmark and Australia, and tourism-related topics in the Belt and Road Summit are very hot. More and more countries and regions have spared no efforts to” Welcome China”, such as the facilitation of visa, the improvement of Chinese reception.
The prospect of Chinese outbound tourism is quite promising, and global destinations surely will roll out the welcome mat to Chinese tourists and investors and tourism will enhance the progress of human civilization undoubtedly.
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