未来十年的旅游业面临的空前挑战
戴斌
中国旅游研究院院长
Dai Bin
President of China Tourism Academy
发源于入境旅游时期的“团队、观光、包价、线路”在相当长的时间里都是旅游的代名词，大规模生产和标准化作业则是主流的商业模式。在消费需求及其自然与历史文化资源指向相对稳定的时代，这一经典模式有其存在的客观必然性，也为降低消费门槛，从而推动我国进入大众旅游初级阶段做出了历史贡献。
散客化时代旅游需求外流压力依然明显
未来十年，传统的旅游组织方式开始面临个性旅游需求的巨大挑战。中国居民消费进入了满足精神需求的高级阶段，休闲、购物、体育等旅游动机不断成长，可定义、易识别的群体市场就会为变化的、多元的个性需求所取代，在我国三十多年的观光主导型旅游发展中，旅游产品多围绕观光需求建设和配置，供给刚性使得大量旅游需求外流，旅游发展红利漏损压力短期内难以缓解。
2015年，国人境外的旅行消费达2150亿美元，其中旅游消费超过1145亿美元，均列世界首位。另外，由于税制、汇率、商业环境、服务水平等各方面的共同作用，未来十年我国宏观经济处于增长速度换挡期和结构调整阵痛期，经济发展驱动力由投资主导向消费主导过渡，旅游发展红利向境外流出势头的难以短期逆转对宏观经济带来直接利空影响。
旅游发展的新旧动能转化有待明确
由于竞争加剧、成本上升、领先发展后学习和模仿的对象缺乏等各类原因，未来十年旅游企业的边际收益率将呈下降趋势。
一方面，传统旅游业态“叫好不叫座”的情势越来越常见，2015年度全国旅行社营业收入4189.01亿元，同比增长3.96%；营业成本3901.77亿元，同比增长2.08%；营业利润18.60亿元，同比减少29.41%；利润总额21.88亿元，同比减少34.14%。
另一方面，旅游创新创业企业发展商业模式和盈利能力都需要进一步培育。当前，途牛、同程、去哪儿网、艺龙的大型旅游电商均连年亏损，滴滴、易到、神州专车等分享经济平台的成长壮大更是直接依赖于产业资本的战略支持。而许多中小型创业公司在花完前几轮融资后仍然没有找到盈利的路径，其中不乏资金链断裂关门停业者。如主打周边游的“周末去哪玩”和P2P旅游平台“收留我”2016年7月先后停止运营，同年6月，曾获阿里巴巴、新天域资本等机构投资的淘在路上对外宣布，受资本寒冬影响，公司停止运营。稍更早些时候，旅付通、拒宅网、脚丫旅游网、找好玩等在线旅游创业公司，也相继关门。
旅游需求的生活化带来游客与居民矛盾有可能显化
伴随旅游休闲活动的常态化及生活化，至少在城市旅游的范围内，自助出行、自主选择的旅游者已经完全进入了目的地居民的公共生活空间，目的地越来越成为外来游客和本地市民共享的生活空间。旅游需求更加生活化，游客在与目的地居民共享这一生活空间的同时，可能对目的地居民造成不便或者困扰，从而导致二者之间的摩擦及矛盾。
此前，内地游客和香港居民之间矛盾除了政治、社会文化等因素，部分可以归结为游客对目的地居民生活空间的侵占、游客对当地居民生活到来的不便，如交通拥挤、生活资源占用、环境破坏等。未来伴随大众旅游的不断深化，更多游客将进入某一旅游目的地居民的生活空间，由此同样可能引起游客和目的地居民之间的矛盾，对此需保持警惕。
TOURISM INDUSTRY WILL FACE UNPRECEDENTED CHALLENGES
Individual Tours Outflow Causing Apparent Pressure
The coming decade will witness unprecedented challenges faced by traditional tourism industry. With the diversified travel demands of Chinese citizens, traditional group-market will be replaced by fast-changing and diversified individual needs. Under such circumstance, tourism infrastructure fails to meet the needs of mass tourism development, causing a substantial outflow of Domestic tourists abroad and thus leading to a stressful loss of development dividend. Moreover, with Chinese macro-economy currently facing transformation in terms of growing speed and industrial restructuring, outflows of Chinese tourism dividend will undoubtedly bring more negative impacts.
Transition between Old and New Drives for Tourism Development
Due to the increasingly fierce competition, rise of cost and expense and the lack of precedents and models for further study, tourism industry in the coming decade will see a decline in its marginal benefits. On the one hand, traditional tourism patterns become less preferred. On the other hand, with online travel agencies like Tuniu, Qunar.com, and eLong suffering a loss of profits in successive years, and the smalland medium sized businesses ceasing operation due to a lack of capital and low profitability, innovative businesses model and profitability are in urgent need of further cultivation.
Closer-to-life Travel Demands May Increase Conflicts between Tourists and the Locals
Nowadays, people prefer to have a more closer-to-life experience when they travel. Destination for travelers, thus, has become an open and public area shared by the locals as well as tourists. This may increase the conflicts between the two above mentioned groups, since tourists, when sharing the public resources of the destination, might also cause inconvenience to the locals. Conflicts between mainland tourists and Hong Kong Residents have proven to be an example in this regard. Therefore, additional attention should be paid and precaution should be taken when it comes to dealing with this matter.
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